Oh no, you didn’t. You didn’t just say that.
“To oppose everything while proposing nothing is irresponsible,” President Bush said.
Well, I don’t oppose everything. And I do agree — he’s right. That others in the leadership of our nation say that he’s wrong, without offering their own guidance or views on what would be right, is itself wrong. It’s reprehensible. Hillary Clinton is wrong. Nancy Pelosi is wrong. The Democratic and Republican Parties are both wrong.
So, I am staking my claim — my right to say whatever the hell I want about President Bush’s new plan for Iraq. Why? Because I can propose something instead.
Here’s how this is going to work:
I’m going to again define what I think the problem is.
I’m going to define how I want the world to be in 10 years. It will be a mix of things that I think will happen, no matter what we do, with some things that I want to influence, to make happen.
These first two things will define my strategy. They’ll tell you where I want our nation and our world to go.
Then, I’m going to try and lay out the facts and the assumptions I am using to analyze a solution. Will I list all facts and all assumptions? Of course not. Gravity might not be a factor, so I won’t list it as a fact, just as the theory of global warming might not factor in, either. I’ll include those facts and those assumptions I am using.
Lastly, I’ll offer up my views on the actions required to implement the strategy. The solution, I call it.
The problem
There are three main things happening in Iraq that are causing problems there.
- There are those who hate this Iraqi government.
- There are those who hate each other.
- There are those who hate the Americans and others, just for being in Iraq.
I recently wrote my open letter to Nanci Pelosi on these very three.
But is that it? Not hardly.
American is very much about the here and now. America lives and Americans live in the moment. What has our attention right this second. Yes, that’s a problem. It’s why we have a problem seeing Iraq as a problem for the decades, or even as a generational problem. It’s why Al Qaeda’s war with the West is viewed in America is having started on 9/11, when Al Qaeda knows that it started years — decades — before that. That America can’t acknowledge that the war in Iraq won’t be over this year — that’s a problem. So, that America is involved in Iraq — that it is America that is involved in Iraq — is a part of the problem, too.
That the Cold War is over is a key part of the problem, too. When Mike Tyson was at the height of his fame and boxing ability, the sport of boxing was both very exciting and, well, very boring. People wanted to see him fight, not for his skill, but to see him pummel someone else. There was no depth of field for boxing talent — it was all Mike. When America was one of the two true super powers of the world, it was exciting and also very boring. Sure, there was tension, but everyone — everyone – did their best to stay in line, for fear of all hell breaking loose, for fear of loosing favor with the US or USSR. Not so anymore. With the Soviets gone, American power — defined in relationship to that of the Soviets — suddenly isn’t all that. No longer a superpower — now just a powerful country.
Ten years from now
What do I want to see for our world, ten years from now?
Iraq has a stable government. Ours is a world of nation states, and in the international community, it is the state that defines the role. So, I’d like to see Iraq with a stable government of some kind. I don’t care what kind. That it’s stable to ten times more important than the form it takes.
The Iraqi government controls the means of violence in Iraq. From the police in the small neighborhoods, to the military and the border controls, the Iraqi government will be the heavy hand in Iraq — not Al Qaeda, not the militias, not the tribal forces, not the outsiders. Step out of line, and it is the government that you answer to, the government that pushes back.
Iraq has a viable economy. Iraq has oil, it has a government, it controls the means of violence — it should have a viable, self-sufficient economy.
Iraq isn’t an exporter of violence. If the Iraqi government is stable, and if they control the means of violence within Iraq, they should also be able to control the people, organizations and entities in Iraq enough to keep them all from spreading violence elsewhere. Not back into Kuwait. Not into Southern Iran, or Saudi Arabia. Not in the Philippines, or Jakarta.
America will still be at war with Al Qaeda. Actually, Al Qaeda will still be at war with the US and other western powers. I don’t really want this to be, but I’m fairly sure it’s the case. Sorry, folks — reality. Our differences can’t and won’t be settled that quickly.
America is still a dominant country, a powerful country, but American “power” won’t be what it once was. Won’t be what it is today, what is was in the 1980′s and the Cold War era. Ditto for organizations such as NATO, the EU, and the UN. I’d like to offer that there are things that can be done to change this, but after a lot of thought, I haven’t come up with any.
Facts and assumptions
The United States has guaranteed the security and longevity of the government of Iraq. Even if the US were to try and change its mind, and do something like back out of Iraq, or let Iraq go to hell in a hand basket, the world views the situation as one wherein the security of the Iraqi regime rests with the Americans.
I’m assuming that America has no stomach for a return of a draft.
America won’t militarize its economy or society. That’s an assumption. No driving our private sectors into the war-machine, not victory gardens, no rationing.
I’m assuming that there’s a finite limit to the amount of military forces the US is willing to put on the ground in Iraq.
More battlefields with Al Qaeda will open up. We’re going to need our tanks and our infantry, our spies and our satellites, in other places, too.
Recommendations
I’d like to start by trying to remove the politics from the politicians, but that’s not going to work. I suspect that this is part of what has gotten us into this mess — talking about what’s not working, talking about who is to blame, instead of talking about the problem and ways to solve it.
Stop buying for the Iraqis that which they can buy for themselves. Iraq has oil, Iraq has money. If Iraq needs things, Iraq can and should fund it. By all means, America can help to find vendors, but it’s Iraq, Iraqi, and dinars — their stable government can now begin to foot the bill. If they want M16′s, they’ll buy M16′s. If they want AK-47′s, they’ll buy those. And if they want electricity, they’ll find a way to make that happen, too — effort to emphasis. Send contracting and logistics folks — to operate under Iraqis rules and laws (which comes into play with things like bribes. It’s sending Americans to operate in a foreign culture, as if part of that culture)
Let them train themselves. In our Army, “train the trainer” is one of our catch phrases. We’ve offered them a few years of experience, training their their soldiers and leaders. Let them now begin to train their own soldiers, police, security forces. Who should know better than the Iraqis how to define their own needs? They’re big boys — they’ll know what to do.
Expand the active-duty American Army. Add 8 to 10 brigades of Military Police. Expand the Guard and Reserve forces, and add a similar number of MP brigades. Double or triple the size of the American special forces capabilities, to include the Rangers. We’ll need to at least double our Civil Affairs forces. Intelligence folks? I’d tell you to triple them (and their toys), but somehow I doubt you’d be able to fill the ranks. If the era of high intensity conflict with the Soviets has passed, and if this new era will primarily be low intensity conflict and stabilization operations, then define the Army mission to include these and then equipment them as such. Yes, keep the American tanks and artillery, but learn to use them as they were intended, not for what you need today (square peg & round hole, vs. round peg & round hole). If we have a standing requirement for lots of MP’s for lots of missions, then let’s acknowledge that and prepare as such. To make these MP brigades, start with some of the infantry, artillery, engineer leadership — officers and NCO’s alike — and make them MP’s. Have these units up and operations in 12 months (yes, rapid acquisition) and then begin to get these units into places like Iraq.
Stop rotating forces in and out of Iraq. I know — I’m going to get hate mail for even suggesting this. Every time a unit rotates out, its knowledge of Iraq, of the situation, of the tactics is lost. No one is going to sign up for a 2 or 3 year stint in Iraq, but let’s face it — we are a nation at war, and these days, that is the war front. In ten years, Iraq will be stable. Leave the units there, and rotate the soldiers in for unaccompanied tours, as we do in Korea. My wife’s grandfather left on December 8th, and came home in 1946. As we’ve pledged to guarantee the security of Iraq, let’s do it and do it right. And yes, I mean MP brigades in, and armor and infantry out.
Enough with the base camps already. Get ready to start closing them. In the coming 2 to 3 years, as we move from heavy fighters to MP’s and light fighters, America will transition out of American FOB’s and base camps, into the Iraqi infrastructure. Their police stations, their bases. It’s their fight, their home — we can help if and when we are among them. Start developing the doctrine now for how to operate like this, how to fight like this, how to sustain the troops like this.
Establish diplomatic relations with Iran. Not having them seems kind of silly these days. Sure, it made sense in 1979, when we were trying to pretend that they hadn’t just overthrown the Shah. Maybe if we didn’t recognize them, others might not think that the new regime is legitimate, and that it’d go away — soon. Well, some 20+ years later, it hasn’t. And Iran is a big part of the problem in Iraq — one of the many others that has their fingers in the Iraq pie. From sending money, to sending fighters, Iran is an active participant in the troubles in Iraq, because they percieve it as being in their interest to be involved. So, let’s call it like it is — re-establish diplomatic relations, and start to deal with them in the international community, on this and other issues like, of, I don’t know — nuclear weapons.
Closing thoughts
I don’t want my grand kids to live in a country that is so enormously in debt, that debt defines the country. We were heading there, and had made some progress to change that. This war, though — egads, this war, these wars, is/are sinking us deeper and deeper.
I don’t want Iraq to still be an active war when my son is of age to go and fight. And yes, that’s in ten years.
