Art La Flamme

CNN is just now starting to talk about a 1.5 meter by 1 meter hole under the railbed, and Russian assertions that — gasp! — this tragic accident may not be an accident but indeed the work of (dum, dum, DUM!) terrorists.

Well, of course it’s terrorism. Investigators have shown up and have begun to ask questions of the locals — have there been strangers in the area recently? Maybe Chechens? Or some other terrorists from the North Caucasus region?

I have no doubt that it’s terrorism, and would not be surprised in the least if it turns out to be tied to Grozny or Russia’s own internal Muslim conflict. Basayev may be dead, but the conflict rages on, the issues remain unresolved.

And it will be interesting, in these next couple of days, to see how the US responds to Russian cries about the threat she faces from Muslim terrorists. Sometimes, Russia and others like the US see eye to eye on the subject, but not always. I wonder how it will play out this time.

The recent fighting in South Ossetia is one small part of a proxy war between the United States and Russia. The country of Georgia has, since gaining independence, become three groups within one border, with the central government losing effective control over both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And while the United States has courted Georgia as a partner in the Global War On Terror and as a possible future member of NATO, Russia has effectively subverted this growing alliance through continued support to the separatist movements in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Conflict in Georgia, and the prospects for resumed armed conflict there, will not end until the United States and Russia have settled their issues and ended their war by proxy.

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Georgia and the separatists in South Ossetia came to blows a couple of days ago, ending the de facto stalemate in the war there. Russia has had “peace keepers” there for some time, and this re-introduction of combat operations has dragged Mother Russia back into the fighting.

Russia and the Republic of Georgia are at war.

I realize that, for most of America, this is not a big deal. For me, this is news, with a capital N.

For Russia, this is a win-win situation.

Russia wins in exerting influence over South Ossetia when it comes at the expense of the Republic of Georgia. Russia comes out on top be re-exerting its control over what had been Soviet territories, and what is now territory in a pro-Western, US-leaning country like Georgia.

Russia wins because they can use this as justification for rolling in massive amounts of troops. and not just into South Ossetia, but also in Abkhazia, another break-away region in Georgia.

They win, because they might be able to influence the oil coming out of Azerbaijan en route to Turkey or the oil ports on the Georgia’s Black Sea ports, by right or by might.

And what can Georgia do? Call for US assistance? US troops? Repel the Russians themselves?

They’re going to bleed. They’re going to take as much of a beating as the Russians choose to give them. And there’s not a damn thing else they can do.

The Russians in South Ossetia win. More support, more autonomy, more business with Russia will only improve their lives. They aren’t viable as a state, but they can gain here with some more autonomy and more support from Mother Russia.

And Abkhazia will gain, the same way.

Russia wins. South Ossetia wins. Abkhazia wins.

Georgia loses. America is going to lose. And other western countries will lose, if the oil flow is disrupted or the price goes up.

This, by the way, is worth watching.